The Rural Renaissance of Massachusetts
Rural leisure towns are appreciating faster than the Boston-metro area.
The data is in – rural leisure towns are trouncing urban centers in property appreciation. The winners are Cape Cod and the Berkshires. The laggard is the Boston-metro area.
In Massachusetts, Cambridge real estate values appreciated the slowest at 12% over the last three and a half years. The wealth created by the “world’s most innovative square mile” left city limits. The benefit of a short commute to the office weakened alongside ongoing urban issues. “The most obvious thing you’re trying to avoid is to have somebody come in, fight off 90 minutes round-trip traffic, so they can sit in a cube and stare at their monitor,” said Peter Church, chief people officer at Canton-based insurer Point32Health. A Cambridge turned Nantucket resident myself, I was relieved to swap dodgy encounters in Central Square for dips in the ocean. Migration is orienting around quality of life. We are in the midst of a rural renaissance.
“I think most companies have resigned themselves to the fact that flexible work schedules are here to stay,” said Jim Rooney, president of the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce. Hybrid schedules and remote-friendly businesses are enabling the out-migration.
Woods Hole on Cape Cod topped the property appreciation ranking. The highly livable beach town appreciated 45%. Woods Hole is a peaceful and nature-rich small town 1.5 hours from Boston. It is an ideal residence for the hybrid executive or entrepreneur.
Cape Cod as a whole saw market leading appreciation. Southern Berkshires towns, popular among New Yorkers, also stand out. The towns in Great Barrington’s orbit boomed: Egremont, Sheffield, West Stockbridge and Otis. They are rural but not impossibly so with a 2-3 hours drive to both Boston and New York City. Nearby swimming holes, meadows, and ski mountains are plentiful. Many towns in the Northern Berkshires remain affordable.
The alternative explanation for the rural vs urban property value divergence is housing production. Perhaps the Boston-metro area produced enough housing to hold down appreciation. There is some truth to this. Using a three-month average ending in May 2024, Boston produced 8.4 homes per ten thousand of existing supply. Barnstable county, the primary population center on Cape Cod, produced 0.8 homes. In-effect the Boston metro-area is being hit by a double whammy of increased housing production (a good thing) and the loosened grip of in-office work.
Nevertheless, population growth patterns confirm the rural renaissance. The map below shows the top thirty Massachusetts towns by population growth. This is overlayed onto the original map showing the fastest and slowest appreciating markets. The fastest growing towns are rural, not urban.
The Affordable Homes Act, passed on July 31, 2024, will accelerate the out-migration. Accessory dwelling units (ADUs), second dwellings on a lot, will be allowed in all municipalities. Many rural towns forbade the construction of ADUs. This legislation is timely. As noted, the out-migration is rapidly pushing up prices.
Time will tell how long rural escapes can out-perform urban economic engines. My bet is a while longer. Off to build in the Berkshires!
For the full ranking and data email caleb@wursten.co.
Great insights. Any data on walkability being a factor in which rural areas are growing? If my fellow millennials are like me, I love the idea of going rural so long as there’s a downtown to enjoy. Looking forward to your next post
Great to hear from you Kyle! Good question.
The most appreciated towns have walkable downtowns, or are near walkable downtowns, with residential sprawl. Most trips will require a car. Cambridge, the least appreciated market, is one of the few places in the state where car ownership is not necessary.
I suspect the lack of “pure walk-ability” in the most appreciated markets is because older folks are driving the market. They are more car centric. As millennials build wealth I’d imagine the towns that get denser will outperform. Then again, maybe our preferences change as we get older